Meta description: SpaceX and Tesla have erased $1.5 trillion in combined market cap since mid-June. Next week brings SpaceX's first earnings report as a public company and a massive insider lockup expiry.
It's been, in the words of one Wall Street analyst, "a rough month for Elon Musk, if there is such a thing for the world's richest man." SpaceX and Tesla have together erased a cumulative $1.5 trillion in market capitalization since mid-June, and next week brings a setup that options traders are calling one of the riskiest of the year: SpaceX's first-ever quarterly earnings report as a public company, followed just two days later by a massive insider lockup expiry.
The scale of the damage so far
SpaceX stock has fallen nearly 50% from its all-time high, while Tesla is down 18% since its disappointing earnings report last week. As covered in our earlier post on SpaceX's decline, the stock has now traded below its $135 IPO price for multiple consecutive sessions, and some analysts, including a Motley Fool contributor, have argued shares could fall another 50% by Christmas given the company's still-rich valuation relative to projected 2027 sales of roughly $73.1 billion.
Why next week is different: earnings meet lockup expiry
The setup heading into next week is unusually complicated. SpaceX reports its first quarterly earnings as a public company on Tuesday, and just two days later, the company's unique early lockup structure allows insiders to begin selling more than 900 million shares — roughly 20% of eligible locked-up stock, a volume larger than the entire IPO float itself.
What options markets are pricing in
The numbers here are extreme even by this year's volatile standards. Options pricing implies a 15% swing in SpaceX stock around earnings, with implied volatility of 122 — higher than every company in the S&P 500 except SanDisk, which itself dropped 16% earlier this week. Contracts expiring in early August show implied volatility as high as 160, compared to 55 for Tesla, whose own implied volatility currently sits at 52. That gap illustrates just how much uncertainty is concentrated specifically in SpaceX right now.
An unusual dilemma for traders
Normally, a stock's volatility falls after an earnings report clears the calendar — the predictable risk has passed, even if the stock reacts badly. SpaceX's situation flips that logic. Because the lockup expiry follows earnings by just two days, traders can't assume volatility will settle down afterward: if the earnings report triggers a wave of insider selling once the lockup opens, volatility could stay elevated or increase further, rather than decline as it typically would.
Retail sentiment remains surprisingly bullish
Despite the scale of the pullback, SpaceX traders have largely retained their optimism. More calls than puts have traded on a daily basis throughout the decline, even as the majority of options premium by dollar value has been tied to puts — suggesting smaller retail traders are betting on a rebound while larger, better-capitalized positions are hedging against further downside.
The human cost: Musk's net worth
The financial toll on Elon Musk personally has been dramatic. Having briefly become history's first trillionaire following SpaceX's IPO, with his individual net worth peaking above $1.4 trillion, Musk's wealth has since fallen to around $708 billion, according to Forbes — still the largest fortune in the world by a wide margin, but a striking decline in just over a month.
What investors should watch
- SpaceX's first earnings report as a public company, due next Tuesday, for concrete financial data to weigh against months of pure sentiment-driven trading
- The lockup expiry two days later, and whether insiders sell meaningfully into an already battered stock
- Whether Starship's next test flight goes smoothly, given how directly prior launch issues have weighed on sentiment
- Tesla's continued trajectory, since the two stocks have been trading in tandem for much of the past month
Bottom line
The combination of SpaceX's first public earnings report and a massive lockup expiry within the same week creates one of the most consequential — and unpredictable — stretches on the calendar for any Musk-related stock this year. With options markets pricing in extreme volatility and retail and institutional traders positioned very differently, next week's outcome could meaningfully reshape the narrative around SpaceX heading into the second half of 2026.
This post is based on reporting from CNBC, TheStreet, The Motley Fool, and Deseret News as of July 27-28, 2026. This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
